Conflux

N.C. Young

Scott Lawrence

Magnus Rahbek Hansen

As is announced at the Fields Medal ceremony on July 6th. If the award is refused by a winner, they will still be considered to have won for the purposes of resolving this market.

Apr 8, 12:59pm: Unlike Nobel laureates, who might share a prize in different proportions (e.g. if there are three, the awarding committee may opt to award half the award money to one recipient and a quarter to each of the two others), Fields medalists have been treated equally in the past. I do not anticipate this changing, but even if it does, this market will resolve to distribute the pool equally among the winning options.

Resolves yes if the People's Republic of China attempts to physically invade Taiwan, regardless of whether they succeed

#China #War #Taiwan

Elon is single aella is single that’s all you need to make happen.

This market resolves positively on the 1st of July, 2022. This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets, and, to some extent, what the implied discount rate is. Note that with Manifold's lending functionality, you can bet the first M$20 for free.

This market resolves to YES if Timnit Gebru puts out a statement declaring that she has changed her mind and decided that longtermism is a net positive for the world. A statement about rhetorical approaches, tone, etc. does not count, while a statement about how longtermism is a good concept which needs improvement in its execution does.

Sorry, for the remake, I wrote it poorly yesterday.

In our last team meeting we set a goal of hitting 300 daily active users by then end of May (or 200 if we don't end up doing much outreach). I'm going to split the difference and put 250 for this question.

This isn't an average, having 250 daily active users on any day will resolve the market with YES. You can find the analytics here: https://manifold.markets/analytics

Market resolves to YES in the event that a nuclear weapon is confirmed to be launched for combat, non-testing purposes before Jan 1, 2023, anywhere in the world.

Background: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/05/02/us/roe-v-wade-abortion-supreme-court#roe-v-wade-abortion-supreme-court

Resolves YES if the identity of the person (or persons) who leaked the purported draft of the Roe v Wade decision is confirmed by a reputable source before end of day on May 10th, 2022. Resolves N/A if the draft is revealed to be fake before that time, and NO otherwise.

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